President Obama has been working overtime (Jay Leno, 60 minutes, Presidential Press Conference) to convince you that he knows what he is doing and that his 3.5 trillion dollar budget needs to be passed. It is turning into Obama Overkill. To make matters worse, his news confidence to tell me the same thing that he has been saying in all of his other media appearances forced American Idol to move to Wednesday night. At least on American idol the American people’s vote really counts.
All of the arguments for the largest budget in US history are based on the assumption that we will have mild losses this year and rebound next year and have strong growth for the following 3 years.
This week, Christina Romer, head of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, said she was “incredibly confident” the U.S. economy will recover within a year.
Wow, the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression and just like that it will recover and everything will be OK. I thought that Obama said it would take time. That isn’t much time to me when considering the scope of things.
Here are some quotes from another time when politicians and economists desperately wanted you to believe everything was going to just fine.
“We will not have any more crashes in our time.”
- John Maynard Keynes in 1927
“There will be no interruption of our permanent prosperity.”
- Myron E. Forbes, President, Pierce Arrow Motor Car Co., January 12, 1928
“There may be a recession in stock prices, but not anything in the nature of a crash.”
- Irving Fisher, leading U.S. economist , New York Times, Sept. 5, 1929
“This crash is not going to have much effect on business.”
- Arthur Reynolds, Chairman of Continental Illinois Bank of Chicago, October 24, 1929
“We feel that fundamentally Wall Street is sound, and that for people who can afford to pay for them outright, good stocks are cheap at these prices.”
- Goodbody and Company market-letter quoted in The New York Times, Friday, October 25, 1929
“This is the time to buy stocks. This is the time to recall the words of the late J. P. Morgan… that any man who is bearish on America will go broke. Within a few days there is likely to be a bear panic rather than a bull panic. Many of the low prices as a result of this hysterical selling are not likely to be reached again in many years.”
- R. W. McNeel, market analyst, as quoted in the New York Herald Tribune, October 30, 1929
“Buying of sound, seasoned issues now will not be regretted”
- E. A. Pearce market letter quoted in the New York Herald Tribune, October 30, 1929
“Some pretty intelligent people are now buying stocks… Unless we are to have a panic — which no one seriously believes, stocks have hit bottom.”
- R. W. McNeal, financial analyst in October 1929
“…despite its severity, we believe that the slump in stock prices will prove an intermediate movement and not the precursor of a business depression such as would entail prolonged further liquidation…”
- Harvard Economic Society (HES), November 2, 1929
“… a serious depression seems improbable; [we expect] recovery of business next spring, with further improvement in the fall.”
- HES, November 10, 1929
“The end of the decline of the Stock Market will probably not be long, only a few more days at most.”
- Irving Fisher, Professor of Economics at Yale University, November 14, 1929
“In most of the cities and towns of this country, this Wall Street panic will have no effect.”
- Paul Block (President of the Block newspaper chain), editorial, November 15, 1929
“Financial storm definitely passed.”
- Bernard Baruch, cablegram to Winston Churchill, November 15, 1929
“I see nothing in the present situation that is either menacing or warrants pessimism… I have every confidence that there will be a revival of activity in the spring, and that during this coming year the country will make steady progress.”
- Andrew W. Mellon, U.S. Secretary of the Treasury December 31, 1929
“I am convinced that through these measures we have reestablished confidence.”
- Herbert Hoover, December 1929
“[1930 will be] a splendid employment year.”
- U.S. Dept. of Labor, New Year’s Forecast, December 1929
“…there are indications that the severest phase of the recession is over…”
- Harvard Economic Society (HES) Jan 18, 1930
“There is nothing in the situation to be disturbed about.”
- Secretary of the Treasury Andrew Mellon, Feb 1930
“The spring of 1930 marks the end of a period of grave concern…American business is steadily coming back to a normal level of prosperity.”
- Julius Barnes, head of Hoover’s National Business Survey Conference, Mar 16, 1930
Between 1929 and 1932, the stock market lost 89%. The greatest stock market decline on record marked the beginning of the beginnings of the Great Depression which lasted until 1937. The entire time politicians and economists were working to make the American People believe that nothing was wrong.
Tags: bear market, Great Depression, Obama
Recent Comments